On Fox, Michael Barone with a stack of election returns is Mariano Rivera with a baseball in his hand.
"Ohio six, well, that's part of the Kentucky border, a series of suburban communities earning a median sixty thousand a year joined with some hilly country, a group of farms that went for Kerry by sixty percent, all but the Johnson spread, dating back to Aunt Bessie's dailiance with McGeorge Bundy . . ."
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Sodrel (R) loses house race in Indiana
You've never met him. But he was important tonight.
Over at Fox, Major Garrett is bringing up GOP legal challenges in the race. Doesn't sound like much.
Over at TX-22, Shelly Sekula-Gibbs is hanging in there at 42%--as a write-in. Only the slightest indication of how well the GOP would have done had Tom DeLay either 1) resigned a long time ago, or 2) stayed and fought. What he did was the worst of all words.
Over at Fox, Major Garrett is bringing up GOP legal challenges in the race. Doesn't sound like much.
Over at TX-22, Shelly Sekula-Gibbs is hanging in there at 42%--as a write-in. Only the slightest indication of how well the GOP would have done had Tom DeLay either 1) resigned a long time ago, or 2) stayed and fought. What he did was the worst of all words.
GOP holds Katherine Harris's seat; may gain in Georgia. Virginia continues to annoy
First smidgin of good news for the GOP all night: FLA-16 stays GOP; GOP competitive in two of the only three Dem Congressional districts up for grabs.
Virginia--gawd, when has so much been expended over what mattered so little--still a nail-biter.
Same with Missouri.
Tennessee--barely a lead for Corker.
And the GOP is claiming that CNN (and Fox) called Maryland too quickly.
Virginia--gawd, when has so much been expended over what mattered so little--still a nail-biter.
Same with Missouri.
Tennessee--barely a lead for Corker.
And the GOP is claiming that CNN (and Fox) called Maryland too quickly.
Rhode Island goes to the Dems
Astrogirl with her first commentary of the night: "How ironic. Whitehouse beats the candidate supported by the White House."
Ugh.
Ugh.
Chocola, Northup lose
Three GOPers in red seats have lost--still the low-hanging fruit. But not good.
Lieberman wins in Connecticut
Well, somewhere, Kos plots revenge.
I love it.
Don't kid yourself: the nutroots went all-in on Lamont. And they are one GOP victory in either Maryland or the four GOP battleground states from retaining the Senate.
Implications to follow.
I love it.
Don't kid yourself: the nutroots went all-in on Lamont. And they are one GOP victory in either Maryland or the four GOP battleground states from retaining the Senate.
Implications to follow.
Santorum out, Menendez in
No surprises. And Schumer has just declared Ohio for the Dems.
The House: I don't like those Indiana House races: if the Dems go four for four, look out. And Shaw is behind in Florida.
The GOP needs some good news fast: Maryland or Virginia, either one.
The House: I don't like those Indiana House races: if the Dems go four for four, look out. And Shaw is behind in Florida.
The GOP needs some good news fast: Maryland or Virginia, either one.
Those Damn Exit Polls: here we go
On Huffpost.
Acting with the assumption that exit polls always skew left (sometimes dramatically so) we can assume, early, that Kyl and Corker are home free.
The Dems, then, must hold Maryland, win (as they appear ready to) Pennsylvania and Ohio, and then run the table in Virginia, Montana, Rhode Island, and Missouri.
Tall order. As for exit polls? "Allow me to be the first to say, 'Mr. President.'"
Acting with the assumption that exit polls always skew left (sometimes dramatically so) we can assume, early, that Kyl and Corker are home free.
The Dems, then, must hold Maryland, win (as they appear ready to) Pennsylvania and Ohio, and then run the table in Virginia, Montana, Rhode Island, and Missouri.
Tall order. As for exit polls? "Allow me to be the first to say, 'Mr. President.'"
Harris to Nifong: "It's about honesty. You're not honest."
An election-day takedown of Mike* Nifong, the Durham district attorney running the most public disgrace of a trial since the McMartin Preschool child-molestation fiasco and other related preying-teacher frauds perpetuated from New Jersey to San Diego in the mid-80s.
(It is always worth noting that the great Child Molestation Epidemic Hoax was smashed due in large part to the efforts of three eclectically mixed periodicals: The Village Voice, The National Review, and the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal. To which news Desert Rose remarked, "There's no subsitute for intelligence applied correctly."
Forty years from now, books will be written about Ray Nifong's prosecutorial misconduct, which has verged on the Kafka-esque since the DNA samples of the accuseds' turned out negative. For now, those of us who have followed the case will have to gain satisfaction from this exchange, between Bob Harris, the voice of Duke sports, and Nifong, when Harris refused to shake hands with Nifong outside a polling place:
More on this in future weeks. For now, back to the mid-terms.
*Correction: Anonymous wrote me to point out that DA's first name was Mike, not Ray, as I originally wrote. I've corrected the text.
(It is always worth noting that the great Child Molestation Epidemic Hoax was smashed due in large part to the efforts of three eclectically mixed periodicals: The Village Voice, The National Review, and the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal. To which news Desert Rose remarked, "There's no subsitute for intelligence applied correctly."
Forty years from now, books will be written about Ray Nifong's prosecutorial misconduct, which has verged on the Kafka-esque since the DNA samples of the accuseds' turned out negative. For now, those of us who have followed the case will have to gain satisfaction from this exchange, between Bob Harris, the voice of Duke sports, and Nifong, when Harris refused to shake hands with Nifong outside a polling place:
You've got to be nicer than that," Nifong said.
"Get out of here," Harris said. "Don't pull this crap."
"This isn't about Duke," Nifong said. "This isn't about Duke at all."
"No," Harris said. "It's about honesty. You're not honest."
More on this in future weeks. For now, back to the mid-terms.
*Correction: Anonymous wrote me to point out that DA's first name was Mike, not Ray, as I originally wrote. I've corrected the text.
Election Day . . .
And, turnout blah blah blah. To paraphrase Dean Barnett: Election Day is like watching the Super Bowl played in the dark. Nothing going on until night-time.
What to watch for: If the three GOP Connecticut Reps go down, trouble for the Republicans. If the Steele wins early in Maryland, bad news for the Dems.
A Chafee win in Rhode Island is bad news for the Dems, negligible news for the GOP in so, so, so many ways.
Watch the GOP Indiana Reps.
As the evening goes along, watch Foley's seat, followed by DeLay's.
And if the GOP wins any two Senate races between Tennessee, Montana, Virginia, Rhode Island, and Missouri, the GOP Senate is safe for now.
I'm going over to Huffpost for a second, having not seen it today. If "Voting Irregularities" are in their top left "scream headline" slot, the Dems are in trouble.
Update: Well, not quite. But close.
What to watch for: If the three GOP Connecticut Reps go down, trouble for the Republicans. If the Steele wins early in Maryland, bad news for the Dems.
A Chafee win in Rhode Island is bad news for the Dems, negligible news for the GOP in so, so, so many ways.
Watch the GOP Indiana Reps.
As the evening goes along, watch Foley's seat, followed by DeLay's.
And if the GOP wins any two Senate races between Tennessee, Montana, Virginia, Rhode Island, and Missouri, the GOP Senate is safe for now.
I'm going over to Huffpost for a second, having not seen it today. If "Voting Irregularities" are in their top left "scream headline" slot, the Dems are in trouble.
Update: Well, not quite. But close.
Monday, November 06, 2006
Some weekend
Random sightings:
1. USC defeats Stanford, 42-0, in about just the game it needed. It now returns to Los Angeles for the balance of the season--and quite possibly its four most dangerous opponents--and, as I sit here, I cannot think of what will happen, anywhere from the BCS Championship Game to losing the Sun Bowl tiebreaker to Oregon. 11-1 or 8-4: at this point I simply have no idea, and neither does anyone else. The great untold story of this season is the depth of the Pac-10, and--as Robbie-Boy pointed out--the crappiness of its bowl arrangement, whereby, potentially, a 9-3 USC team with victories over Arkansas, Nebraska, both Washington schools, Arizona State and (for instance) UCLA and Notre Dame might end up in freaking El Paso in late December.
2. Arizona State loses to Oregon State, 44-10. Ouch. Has something been happening in Beaver country? Was its 33-10 lead over SC not a fluke? I'll make this point again: One through eight (and even Arizona is showing signs of life) the Pac-10 is very good and very, very tightly packed.
3. Election Day tomorrow. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on polls tightening. I still give--in the Senate--Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Maryland and (barely now) Montana to the Dems, and Virginia, Tennessee and (barely) Missouri to the GOP. But even in doing so I can see how a few thousand votes can turn things one way or another. Perhaps the only even marginally safe GOP seat is Tennessee, so a six-seat pick-up for the Dems is (however unlikely) perfectly legitimate. As for the GOP . . . Ohio, Pennsylvania seem lost and New Jersey will stay Dem, so, best-case scenario, the GOP picks up Maryland, loses one more and keeps 53 seats. Again, probably won't happen. 51-49.
4. Saw Departed. Not as great as I hoped--when the Stones music came in over Nicholson's opening narrative, I was ready for something transcendant, something of the order of Goodfellas. Didn't happen. And I was disappointed, in that the opening montage (busing, protests, etc.) seemed to promise something to the politics of Boston, something that Howie Carr covers in his book The Brothers Bulger. But, as Donald Rumsfeld might have said, you go war with the movie you have, and what eventually shows on the screen is very, very good. DiCaprio showed me something, and Wahlberg, and Damon as a rotten bastard. Jack was Jack. And what you get from a Scorsese crime movie is a Scorsese crime movie, in a style as distinctive as John Updike's prose.
5. Looked forward to last night's Patriots-Colts game more, I think, than any regular season game I had ever seen. Really. What a bummer. Not the final score, but the quality of play. Really, four interceptions (okay, two were not Brady's fault) against that defense? Bill Simmons has been hammering this home all season: the Pats have 13 million in unspent cap money. The money cannot be rolled over. And now that the trading deadline has passed, there is no way of finding a quality receiver. With the playoff slotting coming into play, New England will now very likely have to win a Wild Card game at home, then two games on the road: Denver and the Colts, two of the (for differing reasons) hardest places to play in the NFL. I don't even want to think about it.
6. My novel stands at 5,100 words and counting. This is my cue to get back to work.
1. USC defeats Stanford, 42-0, in about just the game it needed. It now returns to Los Angeles for the balance of the season--and quite possibly its four most dangerous opponents--and, as I sit here, I cannot think of what will happen, anywhere from the BCS Championship Game to losing the Sun Bowl tiebreaker to Oregon. 11-1 or 8-4: at this point I simply have no idea, and neither does anyone else. The great untold story of this season is the depth of the Pac-10, and--as Robbie-Boy pointed out--the crappiness of its bowl arrangement, whereby, potentially, a 9-3 USC team with victories over Arkansas, Nebraska, both Washington schools, Arizona State and (for instance) UCLA and Notre Dame might end up in freaking El Paso in late December.
2. Arizona State loses to Oregon State, 44-10. Ouch. Has something been happening in Beaver country? Was its 33-10 lead over SC not a fluke? I'll make this point again: One through eight (and even Arizona is showing signs of life) the Pac-10 is very good and very, very tightly packed.
3. Election Day tomorrow. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on polls tightening. I still give--in the Senate--Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Maryland and (barely now) Montana to the Dems, and Virginia, Tennessee and (barely) Missouri to the GOP. But even in doing so I can see how a few thousand votes can turn things one way or another. Perhaps the only even marginally safe GOP seat is Tennessee, so a six-seat pick-up for the Dems is (however unlikely) perfectly legitimate. As for the GOP . . . Ohio, Pennsylvania seem lost and New Jersey will stay Dem, so, best-case scenario, the GOP picks up Maryland, loses one more and keeps 53 seats. Again, probably won't happen. 51-49.
4. Saw Departed. Not as great as I hoped--when the Stones music came in over Nicholson's opening narrative, I was ready for something transcendant, something of the order of Goodfellas. Didn't happen. And I was disappointed, in that the opening montage (busing, protests, etc.) seemed to promise something to the politics of Boston, something that Howie Carr covers in his book The Brothers Bulger. But, as Donald Rumsfeld might have said, you go war with the movie you have, and what eventually shows on the screen is very, very good. DiCaprio showed me something, and Wahlberg, and Damon as a rotten bastard. Jack was Jack. And what you get from a Scorsese crime movie is a Scorsese crime movie, in a style as distinctive as John Updike's prose.
5. Looked forward to last night's Patriots-Colts game more, I think, than any regular season game I had ever seen. Really. What a bummer. Not the final score, but the quality of play. Really, four interceptions (okay, two were not Brady's fault) against that defense? Bill Simmons has been hammering this home all season: the Pats have 13 million in unspent cap money. The money cannot be rolled over. And now that the trading deadline has passed, there is no way of finding a quality receiver. With the playoff slotting coming into play, New England will now very likely have to win a Wild Card game at home, then two games on the road: Denver and the Colts, two of the (for differing reasons) hardest places to play in the NFL. I don't even want to think about it.
6. My novel stands at 5,100 words and counting. This is my cue to get back to work.
Friday, November 03, 2006
Thursday, November 02, 2006
Louisville def. West Virginia, 44-34
Chapter one of USC's First Long Road Back Since 2003 (only this time without Leinart, Bush, Williams, Colbert, White, Udeze, Cody, Tatupu, Patterson, Bing, Lutui--did I leave anyone out?).
Dear Rutgers:
Go Rutgers! Beat the Cards!
Signed, Chauncey (get me off the hook, damn it!) Washington
(Joe here: does anyone remember a Thursday Night "Gambler's Special" game so compelling?)
Dear Rutgers:
Go Rutgers! Beat the Cards!
Signed, Chauncey (get me off the hook, damn it!) Washington
(Joe here: does anyone remember a Thursday Night "Gambler's Special" game so compelling?)
Five Days Out
Partially due to polls, partially due to perceived momentum, partially hunches, here's where we stand.
Nine competitive Senate races: Seven GOP, two Dem.
Dems must win six seats in the aggregate and hope (as seems likely) they hang on to Lieberman in the caucus.
The most likely scenario for a Dem takeover is for the Dems to hold their two seats and go six-of-seven in the GOP seats.
So, consider:
GOP Seats:
Likely GOP: None
Lean GOP: Virginia, Tennessee
Toss-up: Missouri
Lean Dem: Montana
Likely Dem: Pennsylvania, Ohio
Dem Seats:
Lean Dem: New Jersey
Toss-up: Maryland
Right now, if pinned to the wall, I would give both toss-ups . . . to the GOP. Well, I'd give each one independently to the GOP, but probably bet on a split. So say Missouri goes GOP and Maryland for the Dems. Or the other way around.
Which leaves?
Dems, plus four. 51-49, GOP.
Yeah, I'd take that and walk away, too.
Nine competitive Senate races: Seven GOP, two Dem.
Dems must win six seats in the aggregate and hope (as seems likely) they hang on to Lieberman in the caucus.
The most likely scenario for a Dem takeover is for the Dems to hold their two seats and go six-of-seven in the GOP seats.
So, consider:
GOP Seats:
Likely GOP: None
Lean GOP: Virginia, Tennessee
Toss-up: Missouri
Lean Dem: Montana
Likely Dem: Pennsylvania, Ohio
Dem Seats:
Lean Dem: New Jersey
Toss-up: Maryland
Right now, if pinned to the wall, I would give both toss-ups . . . to the GOP. Well, I'd give each one independently to the GOP, but probably bet on a split. So say Missouri goes GOP and Maryland for the Dems. Or the other way around.
Which leaves?
Dems, plus four. 51-49, GOP.
Yeah, I'd take that and walk away, too.
Kerry, Day 3: So it's over, of course
Senator Kerry: “I sincerely regret that my words were misinterpreted to wrongly imply anything negative about those in uniform, and I personally apologize to any service member, family member, or American who was offended.”
Translation: "To any stupid serviceman dumb enough not to understand what I was saying, and furthermore to any of said serviceman stupid enough to actually be offended by what, to anyone listening, was clearly a smart-aleck remark aimed at your retarded commander-in-chief (who got better grades than me at the same university, but let's not go there) . . . to all you idiots, and to your idiot families, I apologize. Kind of."
Translation: "To any stupid serviceman dumb enough not to understand what I was saying, and furthermore to any of said serviceman stupid enough to actually be offended by what, to anyone listening, was clearly a smart-aleck remark aimed at your retarded commander-in-chief (who got better grades than me at the same university, but let's not go there) . . . to all you idiots, and to your idiot families, I apologize. Kind of."
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
Jeff Bagwell, ex-Astro (and Hall-of-Famer!)
The inevitable happens.
Awhile ago, a writer on espn.com's Page 2 (it could have been Jim Caple) made the case that, when one considers all five tools, Jeff Bagwell was the greatest third baseman of the last fifty years.
Sound odd? Consider every Hall-of-Fame third baseman since 1960. Bagwell had slightly less power numbers that McCovey, Stargell, Killebrew and Murray (all hit at least 475 home runs to Bagwell's 449), but with a higher batting average (.297) than all four. His batting average (.297) is the same as Orlando Cepeda's, but with more home runs (Cepeda hit 379).
So, his offensive numbers are in the mix with the five who are in, and this was while a considerable number of them in the Astrodome, which was only the worst hitters' park of all time.
Add to this that could field and throw better than any of the above (some were outright defensive liabilities). And as for baserunning, it isn't close; he set a baseball record in 1997 by going from first to third on singles 150 times, and he is the only player--at any position--to hit 400 homers and steal 200 bases.
One could make the argument that Stargell or McCovey was more dangerous, or more clutch, or more something--but to find a first baseman significantly better than Bagwell, one would have to go back more than half a century, to gentlemen named Foxx, Mize, Greenberg, Sisler, Gehrig.
Jeff Bagwell is a Hall-of-Famer.
Awhile ago, a writer on espn.com's Page 2 (it could have been Jim Caple) made the case that, when one considers all five tools, Jeff Bagwell was the greatest third baseman of the last fifty years.
Sound odd? Consider every Hall-of-Fame third baseman since 1960. Bagwell had slightly less power numbers that McCovey, Stargell, Killebrew and Murray (all hit at least 475 home runs to Bagwell's 449), but with a higher batting average (.297) than all four. His batting average (.297) is the same as Orlando Cepeda's, but with more home runs (Cepeda hit 379).
So, his offensive numbers are in the mix with the five who are in, and this was while a considerable number of them in the Astrodome, which was only the worst hitters' park of all time.
Add to this that could field and throw better than any of the above (some were outright defensive liabilities). And as for baserunning, it isn't close; he set a baseball record in 1997 by going from first to third on singles 150 times, and he is the only player--at any position--to hit 400 homers and steal 200 bases.
One could make the argument that Stargell or McCovey was more dangerous, or more clutch, or more something--but to find a first baseman significantly better than Bagwell, one would have to go back more than half a century, to gentlemen named Foxx, Mize, Greenberg, Sisler, Gehrig.
Jeff Bagwell is a Hall-of-Famer.
Kerry, Day 2: Signs of Life
The gang at Fox News were almost bouncing in the anchor chairs this morning.
Kerry has been put into Han Solo-esque carbon freezing until next Wednesday.
Now: what are the consequences? Probably not an outright flip of a specific election or elections, nothing like the 2002 Paul Wellstone "memorial service" essentially handed Minnesota, and probably Missouri, to the GOP. Harold Ford--who by all accounts was losing anyway--quickly distanced himself in Tennessee. James Webb in Virginia, who has embraced Kerry in the past, may have a more difficult time, especially with Virginia's substantial military and military-family population.
The real effect may be psychological, something to get the GOP moving in the last week and get people generally in the polls. The GOP base has been looking for something to get them moving. This may be it.
Kerry has been put into Han Solo-esque carbon freezing until next Wednesday.
Now: what are the consequences? Probably not an outright flip of a specific election or elections, nothing like the 2002 Paul Wellstone "memorial service" essentially handed Minnesota, and probably Missouri, to the GOP. Harold Ford--who by all accounts was losing anyway--quickly distanced himself in Tennessee. James Webb in Virginia, who has embraced Kerry in the past, may have a more difficult time, especially with Virginia's substantial military and military-family population.
The real effect may be psychological, something to get the GOP moving in the last week and get people generally in the polls. The GOP base has been looking for something to get them moving. This may be it.
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