Five Days Out

Partially due to polls, partially due to perceived momentum, partially hunches, here's where we stand.

Nine competitive Senate races: Seven GOP, two Dem.

Dems must win six seats in the aggregate and hope (as seems likely) they hang on to Lieberman in the caucus.

The most likely scenario for a Dem takeover is for the Dems to hold their two seats and go six-of-seven in the GOP seats.

So, consider:

GOP Seats:

Likely GOP: None

Lean GOP: Virginia, Tennessee

Toss-up: Missouri

Lean Dem: Montana

Likely Dem: Pennsylvania, Ohio

Dem Seats:

Lean Dem: New Jersey

Toss-up: Maryland

Right now, if pinned to the wall, I would give both toss-ups . . . to the GOP. Well, I'd give each one independently to the GOP, but probably bet on a split. So say Missouri goes GOP and Maryland for the Dems. Or the other way around.

Which leaves?

Dems, plus four. 51-49, GOP.

Yeah, I'd take that and walk away, too.