Let there be no doubt: this primary is not about Lieberman's original support of the war; it is about Lieberman's refusal to claim he was lied to, or tricked, about the war (the Kerry tack); plus his refusal to still approve the idea of the war but criticize its execution (the Hillary Clinton tack, one to which I'm actually not entirely unsympathetic).
The Irish Trojan has thoughts on this matter.
Soxblog, who for the next few months is posting over at Hugh Hewitt, runs down tomorrow's Ten Crucial Questions.
In short: Who will win? Soxer: Lamont, but it will be close.
More to the point; will Lieberman actually run as an independent if he loses?
Soxblog's answer:
No. There’s something un-American about demanding a rematch. Joe has his chance tomorrow. If he loses and still fights on, he’ll look like a Sore Loserman. That will kill him in the polls. He’ll drop out after Labor Day to “unite the party” and join the Bush cabinet, hopefully not at Defense but in Norm Minetta’s job where he could hardly do worse than Minetta did.
This may happen, but right now I disagree. If Lieberman finishes within 10 points of Lamont he will wake up on Wednesday as the the front-runner, if one factors in GOP/independent votes. Never mind the Sore Loserman tag; he won't drop out if he's ahead.
Is this wishful thinking? Perhaps. In the current state of affairs, in which everything from Hurricane Katrina to the economy simply does not exist unless factored through the prism of Iraq, a defeat of the last remaining Democrat in the Scoop Jackson tradition would be seen as a defeat for President Bush.
John Breaux and Zell Miller are gone, replaced by Republicans. If Lieberman leaves, who remains as Bush's closest opposition ally? Ben Nelson?
Conversely, if Lieberman wins tomorrow, or (much more likely) wins as an independent in November, watch a meltdown on the Kos/Huff/Moveon sites with few precedents. If the reaction to Karl Rove's non-indictment in Plamegate was a 10, and the reaction to the "stolen" Ohio election was an 9 (difficult to gauge, since Huff didn't come on board until six months after the '04 election), an eventual Lieberman victory would result in at least an 8, with all the talk of "ignoring the will of the Party."
Anyway, an actual political story in August. How did we get so lucky?
No comments:
Post a Comment