Prediction

Five months out:

Both houses remain GOP. Dustin Hawkins at Townhall.com makes the most persuasive case. Dems keep pointing toward 1994 as the model, but--lacking an agenda--this won't fly. Pretty soon, we will be hearing about 1986: a seven-seat pick-up in the Senate with a GOP president in his second term. Even here, though, the comparison is strained. To truly gauge Senate races, the trick is to go back six years, to the previous election of a particular Senate cluster, and calculate who was elected (usually for the first time) when variables were almost entirely in their favor. (A sports analogy would be Roger Maris, who hit 61 home runs in 1961, when 1) he had a 295-foot right field foul pole to aim at (this was old Yankee Stadium, whose dimensions had been configured to pad Babe Ruth's home run total), and 2) the year of American League expansion, when two new teams introduced 20 pitchers--fully twenty percent of the league--who otherwise would have remained in the minors.) In 1986, a group of first-term Senators were up for re-election, having been brought in via Ronald Reagan's landslide six years earlier, and whose fortunes were tied to Reagan's. With Reagan underdoing second-term blahs, and with rumors of Iran-Contra already circulating, the GOP took a beating.

And what have we this year? In 2000, the Florida imbroglio obscured what was a thrashing for the GOP in the Senate, a loss of five seats (later six, when Jim Jeffords went independent). In 2000, the GOP was at its lowest ebb since 1992; it is almost inconceivable that, six years later, the group that acted as a drag on the party might fall further. Rick Santorum may fall in Pennsylvania (though it will be funny to see the Dems celebrate a victory by a pro-lifer, Bob Casey). Jim Talent (whom I had higher hopes for) may fall in Missouri. But five seats? Don't see it.

In the House, Hawkins writes that no more than twenty-four GOP seats are even competitive, with the GOP leading in sixteen. The Dems need to grab every seat leaning their way, plus reverse half leaning against. Can't be done.