ASU-USC and some BCS

Six days out, soaking in the Valley desert, the host of a Sun Devil family and the run-up to the game, I thought I'd look at the BCS and who might qualify:

1. LSU--win out, they're in. This may require a victory over Georgia in the SEC championship game, a harder row to hoe than you might think.

2. Oregon--out.

3. Kansas--win, they're in. This means beating Missouri and Oklahoma. Frankly, I don't think they can do it. I am always suspicious of basketball schools playing football in football conferences (Arizona, UCLA, Kansas, Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana, Kentucky), and aside from UCLA's Pac-10 football prowess, which basically started with John Robinson's first departure from USC in 1982 and basically ended with Pete Carroll's arrival at USC in 2001, I've mostly been proven right. To drive to the Kansas Athletic Department, you take Naismith drive--and Naismith? Who did what? Kansas hasn't mattered since Gale Sayers, who was portrayed in the movie by a young Lando Calrissian, and they've played a succession of cupcakes, save Oklahoma State. Which brings us to . . .

4. Oklahoma--out.

5. Missouri--Wow! Win, they're in! From the five spot! But: Means beating Oklahoma and Kansas. Something tells me that the Big-12 is going to play rock, paper, scissors. Oklahoma beats Mizz, then beats Kansas. Okay, scissors, paper; scissors, paper. But the Big-12 will cancel itswlf out, call it a hunch.

6. West Virginia--suddenly . . . in a good spot. Never mind LSU; if the Big-12 RPS takes place, UWV zooms to #2. No kidding.

7. Ohio State--This is what the Big-10 goes through every year, and will go through for the next few years. Back in the day, Ohio State would play Michigan for the Rose Bowl on the Saturday before Thanksgiving, ABC would carry the game, Keith Jackson and Ara would call the game, and all was well with the world. If Ohio State won, Woody Hayes would drill his team into the ground, check his team into a Pasadena monastery, and then watch his Buckeyes get their asses kicked (save 1968) on New Year's Day. If Michigan won, Woody Hayes would attack a cameraman, Bo Shembechler would issue a thousand homespun statements, and Michigan would get its ass kicked (save 1989) on New Year's Day.

Now? Now the Big-10 resembles a kid who is back of the pack in Augusta or Pebble Beach, then comes out on Sunday and shoots a 62 with eight groups ahead of him, and heads to the clubhouse with the best final score. Ohio State played Michigan today, and secured, at worst, a Rose Bowl bid, with five other conferences and four other bids still to be hashed out. This resembles nothing so much as Arizona State 1975, which went into the Fiesta Bowl undefeated and number 7, beat number 3 Nebraska, and spent a week noodling over how, if every New Year's Day Bowl went their way, they would be number one!

That was the year Arizona State finished number two, as the unclean, once-defeated Oklahoma won the Orange Bowl, and outpolled the Sun Devils at the end.

But this is where Ohio State is: siotting pretty, the only BCS-qualified team, but watching the world do what it does around them.

8. Arizona State--so here we are. USC is better than Michigan. Arizona was helped by beating Oregon. So. With Ohio State in the clubhouse (this becomes a problem!) ASU beats USC, then beats Arizona, then waits for the Big-12 rock-paper-scissors to play out, and hopes to outdistance tOSU.