Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Primary/Caucus Day in Texas

And the only suspense left--let's face it--is, How far will the Clintons go?

Never mind today. Come the day after Pennsylvania, will the Clintons lead in pledged delegates? No.

Will they lead in pledged-plus-super? No.

Will they (absent Michigan and Florida, a phrase that nearly puts me to sleep to type) be within 150 delegates of Obama, total? Not so much.

So: What will they do?

Two options. Cut losses, retrench, and position Hillary as, say, Majority Leader as soon as pipsqueak Reid can be disposed of.

Then Hillary can call for for cloture the next 20 years.

Or else? Napalm.

You gotta believe the press is craving the latter. Right now, there is a general consensus of Hillary-as-drag, as someone embarrassing herself by not knowing when to exit.

But if she goes, what then? Obama v. McCain? If the past twenty years (Dukakis v. Bush 41) tell us anything, general election polls don't mean a damn until they stabilize after the second convention. The GOP is due up in September.

So: Absent the Clinton slash-and-burn strategy, the Washington press is stuck waiting around for six months--waiting for Obama or McCain to say f&^* or get shot.

So, again: what will the Clintons do?

Orwell used to say that understanding the Soviet Union required imagination more than intellect.

Not that the Clintons are the Politburo.

But you get the idea.

2 comments:

jimmy said...

I would guess the odds are are somewhere around 3/2 she will drop out soon after tonight. She has to know she will look better if she leaves as gracefully as possible. Either way, stick a fork in her. I think you are right about replacing Reid.

You gonna caucus?

texasyank said...

Well, looks like she's in it.

As for caucusing, see above.